Hydrogen energy and the dynamics of energy poverty: Determinants, persistence, and policy implications for sustainability

Energy poverty remains a persistent challenge in Belgium, exacerbated by rising energy costs, inefficient housing, and socio-economic disparities. This study explores the determinants, persistence, and policy implications of energy poverty while assessing the potential role of hydrogen energy as a long-term solution. Using data from the Belgian Socioeconomic Panel (BSOEP) spanning 2013–2019 and applying a dynamic random effects probit model, the research examines how past energy deprivation influences future energy poverty and identifies key socio-economic and housing-related drivers. The findings reveal that households experiencing energy poverty in one period have a 21.9 % higher probability of remaining in deprivation in subsequent years. Single-parent households and single-person dwellings face a significantly higher risk of energy poverty compared to dual-income families. Furthermore, reliance on oil or electricity for heating increases energy poverty likelihood by 3.1 % and 6.4 %, respectively, compared to natural gas users. The study also highlights that homes without insulation are 2.4 times more likely to experience persistent energy poverty. Additionally, rural households and those with a migration background face disproportionate risks due to limited access to affordable energy. The research underscores that integrating hydrogen energy into Belgium's energy mix—through targeted subsidies, infrastructure investment, and decentralized hydrogen microgrids—can significantly mitigate energy poverty while ensuring a just energy transition.